SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model) manual - START

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1. SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model) manual - START

Using SDSM A decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts SESH RL Wilby C W aan LE User Manual Robert L Wilby and Christian W Dawson 26 October 2001 Department of Geography King s College London Strand WC2R 2LS UK Department of Computer Science Loughborough University Leics LE11 3TU UK Sponsors of SDSM A Consortium for the Application of Climate Impact Assessments ACACIA Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios CCIS Project National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal UK Environment Agency Preface General Circulation Models GCMs suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases will have significant implications for climate at global and regional scales Less certain is the extent to which meteorological processes at individual sites will be affected So called downscaling techniques are used to bridge the spatial and temporal resolution gaps between what climate modellers are currently able to provide and what impact assessors require This manual describes a decision support tool for assessing local climate change impacts using a robust statistical downscaling technique SDSM Statistical DownScaling Model Version 2 2 facilitates the rapid development of multiple low cost single site scenarios of daily surface weather variables under current and future climate forcing Additionally the software performs ancillary tasks of data quality control and transformation predictor variable screening automatic model calibration basic diagnostic testing statistical analyses and graphing of climate data In addition the manual describes the UKSDSM archive a set of daily predictor variables prepared for model calibration and downscaling at sites across the UK This archive contains variables describing atmospheric circulation thickness stability and moisture content at several levels in the atmosphere under climate conditions observed between 1961 and 2000 Equivalent predictor variables are provided for three GCM experiments of transient climate change between 1961 and 2099 Application of SDSM is illustrated with respect to the downscaling of daily maximum temperature and precipitation scenarios for a hypothetical site at Blogsville under current 1961 90 and future 2080 99 climate forcing Acknowledgements Development of SDSM Version 2 2 was sponsored by the UK Environment Agency through the National Centre for Risk Analysis and Options Appraisal The authors gratefully acknowledge the support and technical advise of Nick Reynard Environment Agency Richenda Connell UKCIP Brian Waters Environment Agency and Iain Brown UKCIP The UKSDSM data archive was prepared by Ian Harris Climate Research Unit Owen Williams and Kit Macleod provided valuable feedback through beta testing of the software Development of SDSM Version 2 1 was supported by the Canadian Cli		 PDF Manual ENGLISH


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